Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Obamacare is a disaster; Long live Obamacare

Doug:
Well, that was interesting. Last week the Republicans, who control the House, the Senate, and the White House, couldn't pass their Obamacare replacement in the House. The House! That was surprising to me. What do you think that says about the Republican party and what they will be able to do over the next two years?

David:
Is there anyone who writes opinion pieces or blogs who is not talking about Obamacare this week? And with good reason! Back in January, I had two different groups ask if I could talk to them about how the new health-care laws and changes would be affecting them. I jumped at the chance, and had thought, like everyone else, that I'd be evaluating how the new system would be phasing in as Obamacare ended. Well, not so much, eh? I'm very disappointed.

Doug:
Back in January? That was pretty risky not knowing what the new health-care law would even be. On the weekend before January 15, 2017 Trump claimed “We’re going to have insurance for everybody.” Candidate Trump claimed via Twitter “I was the first & only potential GOP candidate to state there will be no cuts to Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid.” Candidate Daddy Trump also claimed “I am going to take care of everybody … Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now.”

David:
However, everyone was certain that after Obamacare had been repealed over and over again in Congress as an exercise of legislation, that once Obama was out, Obamacare would be repealed as a fact. The only question was what would the replacement look like, and what would that mean for all of us.

Doug:
"Exercise of legislation." I like that. Apparently that kind of exercise doesn't make you stronger though. But it does add the necessary distraction from what it really was.

David:
Politics is usually the art of talking about something other than what you're really talking about. As Charles de Gaulle once said, "Since a politician never believes what he says, he is quite surprised to be taken at his word." 

Of course, the politics of the times makes the whole exercise more difficult than it needs to be. Republicans were always against Obamacare, mainly because of the mandates, and none of them ever signed on to the bill. That turned out to be not only a matter of principal, but also a good political move, as Democrats suffered in election after election at the voting booths across the country. Republicans in the House continued to keep it on the front burner by voting to repeal it umpteen times, knowing that Obama would veto it. Now, that they are in charge, they have to have an end game, because they'll be responsible for outcomes.

Doug:
A good political move? I would have thought that the number of Americans now insured was an indication that it was a good move, even if it cost the Democratic party politically. We'll see if the Republican political repeal theater is seen in the same light since they didn't repeal it when they finally, actually could.

David:
The number of newly insured Americans could have been accomplished if the Democrats had just expanded medicaid. They could have done that without upending all of healthcare.


But you are absolutely correct in the sentiment that Republicans may get stuck with the bill, now that they didn't repeal it.

The main problem for us all is still the politics. Republicans had no political reasons to bail out the disastrous errors that were put into the original bill.

Doug:
How about country before politics? America first? That seems like a good reason.

David:
You need to meet more politicians. Many of them are truly nice, caring, and thoughtful people. But they are going to get re-elected no matter what. And party leadership often has different thoughts on what's best for everyone. And the differing parties have differing thoughts on what course is best for the country.

Doug:
I never know what voice you are using. When you say "Republicans had no... reason to" fix the health care system, are you speaking as you, or as a politician? And now you tell me I need to meet more people that will do whatever to get elected? Maybe we need less people like that.

David:
I'm talking about our elected officials. Getting elected, especially to the House, is a grueling experience. Why do you think they call it a "campaign"? And, to be fair to the Freedom Caucus members, there were significant things in the Republican bill to raise questions about. These issues would have been ironed-out through legislation later, but only if some Democrats would join in to help. Now, Democrats (in Congress) have no interest politically in coming together with Republicans to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something workable for the reasons we already mentioned: Republicans (in Congress) may now be left with the disasterous outcomes in their laps. Because Democrats won't lift a finger to help, Republicans have to repeal the bill through the reconciliation process to avoid the inevitable (and promised) filibuster from Democrats in the Senate. They can only repeal portions that affect the budget, and they could only replace portions of the bill with rules that affect the budget. Things like being able to buy insurance across state lines would have to be done later and through the regular process. The Freedom Caucus apparently didn't believe that step-wise process would come to fruition, and ended up killing the whole deal.

Doug:
Oh, those poor Republicans! The evil Democrats won't help them kill Obamacare. The Republicans have some issues to iron out with themselves. By the way, it looks like some battles are brewing in the Republican ranks:
  1. Trump tweets: "Watch @JudgeJeanine on @FoxNews tonight at 9:00 P.M." @realDonalTrump
  2. Judge Jeanine says that night at 9pm that Ryan needs to go.
I'm so embarrassed for the Republicans. They have turned American politics into a 24/7 soap opera.

David:
If you believe that American politics are only now becoming a soap opera, you have not been paying attention to American politics since about 1800.

Here's the reality: Democrats know that there are things that are fatally flawed with Obamacare, and Republicans know there are things in Obamacare Americans like. There were also things in the Republican bill that were problematic, but necessary because of the manner in which the bill was going to move forward through reconciliation. Will they all be able to come together now, for the good of the country?

Doug:
The Democratic party was able to give us Obamacare without any help from the Republicans when the Democrats had less control than the Republicans have now.

David:
That's entirely false. Democrats had the Presidency, the House, and a supermajority in the Senate (greater than 60 votes). Republicans couldn't stop them. Democrats were filibuster proof, right up until the moment Scott Brown became the Senator from Massachusetts. His election is what caused the Democrats to rush the Senate version of Obamacare through (with a lot of bribery for some members) at midnight. Scott Brown would have enabled a filibuster by the minority. Have you forgotten all of that drama so soon?

Doug:
The real reality is that Obamacare is an "entitlement", a redistribution of wealth. You are right: there are things in it that Americans like. But it is a redistribution of wealth! Conundrum for the Republicans. Philosophically, they hate that, but the ACA also saves lives and money. What to do? They can't do anything. They have to keep it to fight it, but they could get rid of it. They'll call it a disaster, but will have to move on and leave this "disaster" so that they can... raise more money to fight it in another election? I don't think Americans are going to buy it.

David:
I have no idea why you believe Obamacare saves lives or money. It does neither.

Doug:
Oh, that's easy: I understand it and how it works. I don't listen to Fox News. Watching Fox News makes you less informed than watching no news at all.

David:
I live it every day. I'm a physician, remember?

Right now, Republicans (evidenced by President Trump's recent tweet) appear ready to just sit back and let the original bill continue its trajectory towards disaster.  The insurance I provide my employees went up another 25% this year (after similar increases every year since Obamacare was enacted) and my deductible is now $10,000! Many Americans are in the same boat. They have insurance, but can't afford to use it. Obamacare is in a death spiral, but as you say, Democrats won't help to kill it and replace it with something better.

Doug:
The ACA was designed to keep costs down, while making insurance available to everyone. I bet it can be made even better.

David:
Well, since it didn't come close to providing insurance for everyone, and costs have skyrocketed, I'd say it certainly could have been better. Starting over (repealing) seems like a reasonable course of action.

Doug:
Either you are purposively trying to fib your way through this, or you are believing a fiction. By all accounts, costs are rising more slowly than they would without Obamacare. And there are (as you have pointed out) many small things that can be done to make it better. Between 1999 and 2004, health care premiums rose 72%. Under Obamacare they have risen much, much less (down to 26%):


David:
I believe you said cost would go down, and everyone would get covered. Now you're saying that cost are still going up, and that's the same thing?

Doug:
No one reading this is falling for that trick. The costs were rising more slowly than they would without the ACA.

David:
You can't say that premiums and costs would go down, then say that they went up, and pretend that you're saying the same thing. You're attempting to cook the numbers. No one can know what the numbers would have done without the ACA. You cannot prove a negative. But costs and premiums have gone up under the ACA, and they've gone up considerably.

I don't want to drown you with data, but let's look at some numbers:







The majority of people who didn't have insurance before, and have it now, got medicaid. They still have no doctor because of a continuing shortage, and they still go to the emergency rooms across the country. Before, they were seen and treated (just like everyone else) and paid nothing. Now, I get paid something from the Federal Government when I treat them. Everyone else is now paying more for their insurance, but their deductibles are so high, they can't really use it. As an ER doctor, I have financially benefited from the ACA, but I'm still vehemently against it.

Doug:
It does seem like you are trying to drown us with pictures, not data. You didn't provide any links for those pretty pictures. It isn't that complicated, but you can try to obscure a few things. One is that costs are still rising, but not at the same rate that they were before the ACA. Second, more people have health care than they did before. That means that they are paying now where before they were not before. That means that they are spending more money on health care. That is a good thing. We want there to be health care for every man, woman, and child in the US. Third, there were some "health care" products before the ACA that cost money, but didn't actually give people medical treatment that they needed.

David:
The graphs are mainly from Kaiser, one of the largest health care providers in the country.

The vast majority of newly insured under the ACA are medicaid recipients. They don't contribute any dollars into the system. The ACA really is a redistribution bill, but it's just running up the debt. Medicaid costs along will more than double within the next ten years, according to Obamacare's own supporters.

In more and more localities, there is only one insurance carrier left in the Obamacare world. So much for competition driving costs down. Obamacare has driven companies out of the markets, and costs have risen. These things are not good. They're disastrous.

Doug:
If keeping the costs from growing faster is "skyrocketing" then we need more of that. But even if that weren't true, the ability to take care of poor and sick people would be worth it, in my opinion. The fact that it also saves money is just icing on the cake.

David:
Where is it saving money? Just saying it does not make it so. The new medicaid recipients are getting their bills paid for with your tax dollars. Before Obamacare that wasn't so. No one paid those bills. So Obamacare is running up the deficit at an ever increasing rate. It's a fallacy that Obamacare somehow is saving money.


Please note that this chart is from the CBO, the government's own prognosticator.

Doug:
Funny that you start that projection in 2015. What happened in 2015 that would affect the projection? Ah yes, a Republican House and Senate. If we fix a few things (some that you mention: lower deductibles, give more options, pay you less) then we could fix the ACA. Repeal the ACA is not a fix.

David:
You make it sound like Republicans changed something in 2015. They didn't. The ACA is still right on the disastrous track it has always been on. And Democrats promise to filibuster any changes going forward.

But why is that? Why won't Democrats vote for something better? During the past seven years, they nixed multiple Republican amendments to the bill in the Senate. Healthcare has become a political bludgeon that leaders on both sides of the political aisle feel they can use against the other. That doesn't leave all of us in a good place. At least not for a while.

Doug:
Something "better"? I'm not sure you understand our goals and how to make them better. Better is universal health care.

David:
As the government has become more involved in healthcare, costs have risen, and our life-expectancy has decreased. Medicine continues to make great advances, but that's all in the private sector, despite the government. Ask any veteran you know how the VA system works for them...

Doug:
I know many VA's and some like their system! I think that with the Republicans in control of the House, Senate, and White House, if health care doesn't get better, then I think I know who we can blame. At least for a while.

David:
See, you're doing it yourself; using healthcare as a weapon. The Democrats wrote a terribly flawed bill and passed it without a single Republican voting for it. Now, if Republicans don't fix all of the problems with the bill, it's their fault. At least you're admitting that the adults  are now in charge. I consider that some progress. Unfortunately, It looks like most of them are still choosing to sit at the kid's table....

Doug:
I always get lost in your analogies; you're claiming that the Republicans are adults, but they don't act like it because they are at the kids table? How does that make them adult? They have to fix all of the problems? Why? I'd be happy if they fix one. Just a little one. If they don't, we know who to blame. In any event, Democrats can't do anything to make Obamacare better---they do not have the votes.

David:
You're saying Republicans are the ones who need to step up and fix this disaster. I'm saying that prospect now appears unlikely to happen. Democrats passed a crappy bill in the first place when they controlled everything with supermajorities. Then, they did nothing to fix it for years when they still had the Senate and the White House. It's their lack of repairing Obamacare that has partially led to their current minority status. And before you say that Democrats had no help from Republicans in fixing the bill, you're now saying that it's the responsibility of Republicans to fix it without the help of Democrats. Will Democrats help fix anything, or follow through on their promise to filibuster everything?  Filibusters don't fix things, nor do they help people in need.

This past week we saw that the only way to repair the damaged and financially failing system is for some hard, bipartisan work to get done. Is there anyone in Washington up to that task? Can Trump swing a deal? I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Doug:
Trump already said that he is done with health care. He worked on it for 18 days, isn't that enough? He now says that he wants the ACA to explode. (It isn't currently.) He wants it to fail. Most Republicans want it to fail. Most reasonable humans want to fix it. People will die without it. But the Republicans are in charge. The Republicans are the government. If they want to break it, they can. Nothing the rest of us can do. Except protest. And then vote.

David:
Most Republicans are unreasonable, and want people to die?

Ah yes, I remember before Saint Obama became president, and back before we had the ACA, when everyone was dying. And then after Obamacare, when death was relegated to the trash heap of history. yes, everyone will surely die without it. Maybe that's why all of those dead people vote for Democrats.....

Doug:
People used to die from not having health care. For the past 7 years, they have had healthcare. Without it, they will again die. Anyone that wants that to happen is unreasonable. I'll leave the implications to the reader to make.

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