Doug:
The first debate is coming up as we write this. We can do this in two parts: predictions, and then we'll live-blog during the debate. First, predictions:
David:
Democrats have shot themselves in the foot. They have set the bar for Trump so low, that all he has to do is show up, look dignified, and say nothing but milk-toast blandness, and he wins. Clinton has gone on and on about how stupid Trump is, how he's racist, and how all his followers are deplorable. As long as he stays calm and hammers her untruthfulness, he'll win.
He has done a number of policy speeches, and since then, has stayed on message, repeating that message in his follow up rallies. And his numbers have gone up steadily.
Hillary, on the other hand, has to somehow undo all of the damage her penchant for secretiveness has done to her campaign. It will be hard for her to change perceptions, especially if she reverts back into her "lawyer-speak" talking points, where she quibbles about details, but fails to explain the big picture about the Clinton Foundation, the server, and the continuing dribble of new emails. She needs to present a concrete reason why she's running, and what the message is. So far, it seems to be, "I'll just keep doing what we're doing, and I'm a woman, so it's my turn". Her team has actually set her bar high, going on about how many debates she's been in before, and that she should have no trouble with Trump.
She only got out on the campaign trail 10 days in August, and had to take a pneumonia break recently. Both of these things have left her looking fragile compared to Trump, who seems to be out every day, at multiple rallies. He seems to thrive on being busy, while she seems to need frequent naps. A coughing fit tonight could be a disaster.
Doug:
I agree that the bar is pretty low for Trump. But you can't blame Democrats for that. Trump firmly placed the bar there himself. Which Trump will show up tonight at the debate? Will it be the one that talks about the size of his manhood? It can't be the one that reads from the teleprompter (there is no teleprompter). Will Clinton bait him into saying something offensive? Will he say something that is completely at odds with the truth? I have no idea. But does it really matter? Those that are already convinced obviously can't be swayed by anything that he says. There is a real danger that a Trump "win" could sway some white, independent voters. Trump is a TV personality. This is his medium.
The bar is pretty low, too, for Clinton, judging by your predictions. There are lots of opportunities for Clinton to make a compelling contrast with Trump. If she can show that her public life of service is extremely well examined, and compare that to Trump's, I think that she could make some inroads into the perception of secretiveness. For example, we actually have no evidence that Trump has any money at all. We have no evidence that Trump has not been dealing with Russia. And yet there are those that think Clinton has more secrets. Compare Clinton's decades of government work to Trump's non-existent governing experience. Compare her detail-oriented "lawyer-speak" with Trump's exaggerations. Being a woman in politics has many drawbacks. But one advantage is in debates:
- Remarks can come across as patronizing.
- Stunts can backfire.
- One-liners can go sour.
- Women can hit hard on sexist remarks.
Of course, Trump usually goes against such deference. But that would probably offend those that he needs to sway (white, middle class).
My predictions: Race issues will be front and center. Trump won't have much to say in the way of policy, or understanding. Clinton will have details on plans, programs, and policies. Trump will attempt to be less abrasive, but won't be able to control himself. The post-debate media discussion will attempt to declare a "winner" between the TV personality that "looks presidential" (e.g., he is a man) and the policy wonk.
---- THE FIRST DEBATE BEGINS! ----
David:
As the debate is getting ready to begin, I noted that Hofstra has issued a “trigger warning” to students watching the debates. Seriously?
Doug:
A trigger warning only is a warning. What was the trigger warning about?
David:
Doug:
Oh, the trigger warning is for the actual physical audience. I guess because it is a college campus. They may talk about Trump.
Here come the spouses. Lester Holt taking the stage. Estimates of 100 million viewers. Should start in about 5 minutes.
Here we go. Six segments, 15 minutes each. First question: Jobs. Clinton answers with a complete answer covering many aspects of policy and plans. Clinton's answer was rehearsed. Trump sounds like he is rambling.
David:
Bernie Sander’s populist message. For not having rehearsed, he stick’s to the issues well. People are not looking for a well-rehearsed career politician. Jobs, jobs, and jobs. This is why 20% of traditional Democrat union households support him. This is where Bernie made inroads.
Doug:
Donald is very careful so far. He even agreed with Clinton once. Clinton trying to bait Trump, mentioning money he borrowed from his dad. He has only mentioned "China" twice so far.
David:
Let’s see if she produces that laugh she does every time she’s gets ready to tell a whopper of a lie, or some canned answer. While you may not care about China, many Americans do. Especially those who used to have jobs that are now in China.
Doug:
Trump: "Secretary Clinton? Is that ok to call you that? I want you to be very happy." Stange statement. He sure is sniffing a lot. Clinton now reviewing the good recovery we have had over the Obama years.
David:
Did the Wall Street princess just say she was going to do something about Wall Street? Like, ask them for some more cash? This just isn’t believable.
Good recovery during the Obama years? Many Americans don’t believe it, because they aren’t living it.
Doug:
Trump interrupting… not happy with Clinton's summary. Trump repeating himself. I don't think him jumping into her talking is going to be received well.
David:
He continues to make a play for both Michigan and Ohio. So she plays up the Bill CLinton angle, even though she has taken stances against Bill’s policies.
If she interrupts him, I’d say he can interrupt right back. Double standard?
She says the job losses from NAFTA are just “your opinion”. Let’s see how unemployed workers in those states feel about that.
Doug:
Trump doesn't like NAFTA. Clinton: "I know you live in your own reality." Trump: "You have no plan." Clinton: "Oh, I do. I have written a book about it."
David:
He should be careful how forcefully he goes after her. I agree that it’s a fine line between being forceful, and being rude. So far, he’s landing a lot of populist blows. For people who feel the country is weak, that will score points.
Doug:
He does seem angry. She seems calm. Those at home playing drinking games: "I can't keep up!" He just literally said "Big League"!
David:
She just said you can go to a fact checker from Hillary’s web site? I’m sure it’s unbiased.
Uh oh, she seems a little flustered all of the sudden. She’s starting to stutter.
Doug:
Wow… Trump just went off the handle. Trump: "You are telling ISIS your plan! My plan is not to mention my plan." Ok, that was paraphrased.
David:
Smart move to insinuate he’s General MacArthur, and she’s weak. He’s doing a better job than I expected. Do you think she’ll stay calm throughout the entire debate, or will she try to play the game.
Doug:
He is angrier than I thought he would be. Hey, Trump: shutup! She is talking.
David:
I’d say he’s being forceful, but a lot more than I expected also. Again, he needs to be careful not to interrupt too much, but she is having trouble putting together a string of ideas that people can follow easily because of it. She may be in trouble if she only comes across as a wonk.
Doug:
Trump: "Believe me." Take a drink!
David:
Tax returns. Let’s see what answer comes out here.
"Financial statement of sorts"? He might escape answering this question. That’s a lesson learned from Bill Clinton: “It’s the economy, Stupid”.
Doug:
Trump: "My taxes? We need to think like me! I will release my taxes when Clinton undeletes 33,000 emails."
David:
I think he just said he’d release his taxes when she produces deleted emails. She’s landing a lot of good blows talking about the taxes. He should interrupt her now!!
Doug:
Trump: "Paying $0 in taxes makes me smart."
David:
I caught that, too. Makes me think he hasn’t paid anything, or has been able to use the system to cut his rates.
Doug:
I think you are right. Holt should ask: "If everyone were as smart as you, no one would pay taxes. How would the country operate? How would we run our military?"
David:
Emails. Discussing her aids all taking the 5th Amendment is a winning argument. But he needs to drop the tax issue. She hurt him there, and continuing to talk about “being under-leveraged” is losing me, and probably a lot of others. Tomorrow, the liberal press will be repeating her answer about the tax returns.
He’s back on track talking about infrastructure.
Oh, he needs to get her off the discussions of his finances. She’s killing him here.
Auuuugh, Kryptonite!!
Doug:
Lester: "I need a drink". Ok, he really didn't say that. But he is thinking that. Trump: Sniff. Sniff.
David:
Maybe he has a cold.
Whew, let’s get onto a new subject.
Doug:
My twitter feed thinks he did coke before the debate. New topic: race.
David:
So far, Lester has teed up some questions in ways that seem tailored to Hillary’s strong suits. Let’s see how they each respond to the subject.
Doug:
Jobs and race are Clinton's strong suits?
David:
Oh, you’re right. Jobs and the economy are not her strong suit. Sorry.
Doug:
So which is it? Lester is on Clinton's side, or not?
David:
He didn’t pick the topics, but his questions fit her narrative. But if you're a Democrat or a Republican, and you’re the host, how could you avoid it? So far, I think he’s doing a good job.
Doug:
You mean the narrative of someone running for president of the US? I think he is doing a fairly good job. I wish he wouldn't let Trump interrupt. Trump: "A very-against-police judge."
David:
Lester should be careful not to act as fact-checker, ala Candy Crowley.
Doug:
Lester should not let Trump lie his ass off. Sniff! Stop and frisk was ruled unconstitutional.
David:
How many times has a judge made a ruling that was overturned by a higher court? That’s what he’s saying. It was found unconstitutional, but the case was not appealed. She’s wrong, it was very effective.
Doug:
Nope. Clinton: "Let's get rid of private prisons." Amen to that!
David:
Smart for him not to argue with her when she’s making a case for sentencing restructuring.
Oh oh, now she’s going after guns.
Doug:
Everyone is implicitly biased, that is a fact, Lester.
David:
But the question is are all police biased in the same way? No.
Doug:
Yes. Research shows that black and white people are biased against black people. All in the same way. We looked that that in this blog many months ago.
David:
Right, black people are biased against black people. So even if all officers are black, black people will still be targeted.
Stats. Good to bring some numbers to the discussion. Stop and frisk limited crime in NYC.
Doug:
Trump: "It is hard to believe. Beyond belief." Maybe because it isn't true.
Lester, get him on track! Follow the rules!
David:
Now, she’s breaking the same rules.
Doug:
Birtherism!
David:
I can’t really believe that this issue is worthy of the first debate. I suppose that the folks who want salacious talk will push it.
Doug:
Trump claimed the president was not a legitimate president up until January of this year. Sniff! The birth certificate issue is about a subtle dig about race.
David:
The best way to eliminate a candidate is to get them disqualified. Trump used the same argument in attacking Cruz (who was born in Canada, to American parents). Cruz isn’t black.
Doug:
Clinton: "Trump started his Presidential bid claiming our first African-American President was not a citizen of this country." That sums it up pretty well.
David:
I think there is some evidence that her camp introduced the idea.
The only requirement to run for President is to be over 35, and be a natural-born citizen. In local elections, the debate is residency, signatures, or filing deadlines. Same thing, and not racist.
Doug:
No, there is no evidence. And Clinton never, ever, mentioned such vicious lies.
David:
Right, and no evidence she did anything wrong with her server, either.
New topic. So far, I think Trump won the first segment, Hillary won the second. Not sure how the last part will play out. The main question about race was to talk about the birther issue? Seriously?
Doug:
Trump made me drink more. BTW, here is a transcript of the debate with fact-checking interspersed:
The CIA says Russia hacked into the DNC.
David:
Fact check: The CIA said the hack resembles attacks they believe originate in Russia.
And the NPR? Maybe you should just go back to promoting Hillary's own web site fact checking. Apparently she’s always right….
I think Gary Johnson just called and asked, “What’s Aleppo”.
Doug:
Trump: "Wrong. Wrong. Wrong." Speaking over Clinton. Not appealing.
David:
Hillary calling someone else a liar? That’s funny.
Wait, The withdrawal of troops from Iraq during the Obama Presidency is all Bush’s fault? Is there anything that isn’t Bush’s fault, even now, in 2016?
Doug:
Trump seems less orange. Needs a recharge? Trump: "I haven't given NATO a lot of thought." Duh.
David:
I was actually thinking the same thing Trump just said as Clinton was talking: we’ve been waiting for Middle-Eastern countries to step up for the past 8 years, with little to show for it. Maybe Trump has been reading our blog, and is starting to think like me?
Lester will look bad if he starts arguing with Trump. For anyone who already believes that the media is biased, this feeds the narrative. This question is phrased just to give him a reason to go after Trump. I call foul.
It would be like asking Clinton, “Since you broke the law with your email scandals…”
Doug:
Trump: "Call my friend and ask him if I was against the war. He'll tell you." Thank you, Clinton, for bringing this back to reality, and something that we actually care about.
David:
Uh, Oh. She ‘s really going to bring up the Iran deal? She’s making the case that she’s the same as Obama and Kerry.
Doug:
Trump: "Blowing people out of the water wouldn't start a war." Oh, no?
David:
Just lost my feed...hang on
Doug:
I'll keep you informed. Trump just took off his pants. He just called Obama "Your President." Wow. Last topic: nuclear weapons.
David:
Back. Wow, he got his pants back on pretty fast. Clinton would have probably fallen trying to do that. Of course, she’s probably about to pass out anyway. It’s been a hour and a half.
Doug:
Trump: "China. China. China."
David:
He needs to get back to his message.
Doug:
Indeed. Clinton: "Words matter."
David:
Smart. She’s sounding like a president right now as she discusses the foreign leaders she has talked with about mutual defenses.
Doug:
Yes, that is probably her strong suit.
David:
Is that what you’re calling her pant suit now, her strong suit?
People generally remember the beginning of a debate, and the end. He’s needs to finish strong.
Doug:
Trump: "Does she look presidential? No, she has no stamina." Bait and switch. He is good at it. Trump: "Ok, she has stamina. But it is bad stamina."
David:
Playing the gender card. She just said that Trump said “women should only get paid the same as men if they do a good job.” Makes sense.
Dang, lost my FB feed again, just when it was getting good. Hang on...and keep your pants on!
Doug:
The NPR transcript shows she said basically that, but I think she meant "women should only get paid the same as men if they do a better job."
That's it. The end. Trump ended with a statement saying that he would support her if she won.
David:
Did Clinton say she would support him if he won?
Doug:
She said that she supports the democratic process. I think Lester's question was about whether Trump would call for civil war, or something.
David:
Lester didn’t actually insinuate that, did he?
Doug:
Trump has insinuated it, but not in the debate. Trump has been suggesting that the election is rigged, and it has sounded (to some) like he is setting the stage for a coup.
David:
More likely coupons, for Trump steaks. He is a businessman, after all.
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