It's that time of year! It appears the last time we did our predictions was December 31st, 2016. Although we didn't do one last year, it still appears to be instructive to see how our predictions panned out over 2017 and 2018. We actually fared very well!
Doug:
Happy New Year! It has been a long time since we blogged together. Has anything happened in the country over the last couple of years? We didn't really predict anything specific that occurred.
David:
Well, maybe this time around, we can be a little more specific. Here are some of the topics we covered before. Let's see how we fare this time:
Healthcare
David:
I missed the mark with ObamaCare's demise. It's still hanging on, although it will once again be heading to the Supreme Court. As I mentioned in my blog about Nancy Pelosi, sometimes you have to pass a bill to see if it works or not. Republicans found that there were two Senators that wouldn't vote to completely eliminate the law, and Democrats learned that young, healthy people will pay a tax rather than fork out a ton of money that they don't have. A Federal judge recently ruled the entire law is unconstitutional. I predict that at least some major portions of the law will get shot down at the Supreme Court in the next go around. Republicans in the Senate and Democrats in the House will put together a new bill that will be very ObamaCare-esque (Not good). It will cover pre-existing conditions, and will allow purchase of health plans across state lines.
Doug:
Predictions aren't just what you hope for. One can't really make very specific predictions about Obamacare because "it" was a wide and vast set of sweeping rules, laws, deals, philosophies, and mandates. The mandate made it affordable. Without the mandate, I predict we are headed for single-payer healthcare.
Two years ago I would have thought that Republicans would tweak what everyone knew needed tweaking in the Affordable Care Act, slap the name Trumpcare on it, and claim success. But that didn't happen. Maybe because things named "Trump" usually fail. Think: steaks, universities, airlines, casinos, magazines, mortgages, and governments. Or maybe Republicans don't want everyone to be guaranteed affordable healthcare.
I don't know how long it will take to get a single-payer system, but it will happen. Republicans will hate it, like they hated social security when it was being setup. When we get single-payer, we can all stop talking about healthcare, and if we can afford it.
Economy
David:
I did pretty well with my predictions for the economy. I said we'd have 3.5% growth in 2017. It took until 2018 for the numbers to get to that point, but we saw 4.2% growth in the second quarter of 2018, 3.4% in the third, and 2.8% in the forth. That came out to a 2.9% average for 2018. Consumer spending continues to thrive at greater than 3% for the final two quarters of the year. I predict that the economy will see a slight slowdown in 2019 as we continue to press China to stop their unfair practices. A trade deal will get done with China by July, but may take the entire year, or even extend into 2020 to see the fruition in GDP. Overall, I predict the economy will keep plugging along at 2.8-3%.
Doug:
You're a genius! You have a degree in economics? No, and you said "Economic growth [in 2017] will exceed 3.5%." You act like you spotted some kind of trend, and it didn't get there quite as fast as you predicted. Here is the "trend" over the last 70 years. It bounces around between -1% and +5%. That would be my guess for the next year as well. No one could predict otherwise because it depends on things that will or will not happen.
Tech
David:
Independent production companies did well, as predicted, and continue to drive an entirely new market. Netflix has movies and series that are doing very well. Their most recent offering, "Bird Box", had a reported viewing audience of 45 million (Reported by Netflix...). I predict this trend will continue, to the detriment of theater movie-going.
Self-driving cars and electric vehicles will continue to expand into the marketplace. Batteries will keep advancing, making these vehicles better, faster, more reliable, and more fun.
Private space companies will continue to see success, with some big moves in 2019. A private space vehicle will orbit the Moon and return to Earth this year.
Doug:
You are right, and wrong, regarding movies. Here is the summation in a nutshell: 2017 Box Office: Global Revenue Hits Record $40B Even as Movie Attendance Plummets in U.S. That is, they are making more money, but fewer people are going less often. I predict the opposite from what you predict: I see that there will be more in-theater/Netflix combos. See a movie at home, or at the theater. I predict movie attendance and profits will be up in 2019.
You are also very wrong about self-driving cars. You will not ride in a self-driving car in 2019. No one will. There are still too many problems to solve. But the technology behind self-driving cars (Deep Learning and Machine Learning) will keep changing the interactions we have with tech in profound ways.
I wouldn't be surprised that the constant eroding of Obamacare has had an impact on technology startups. For a startup company, healthcare costs are dominating factors.
Here is some tech to keep your eye on: roll-up TVs and monitors. You heard it here first, folks.
Government
David:
You were correct that Democrats protested anything and everything Trump. But some things still got done in Washington. 2019 will start off as a sideshow, with Democrats in the House starting dozens of new probes into every aspect of the Trump White House. But it won't lead to anything new. In any other universe, it would actually help Trump by making him a sympathetic victim, but this is the Trumpverse, where he will continue to use Twitter to make himself an unlikable bully. But my surprise prediction will be for Trump (who is not an ideologue) to work with Democrats on immigration, infrastructure, and other big projects. Unfortunately, deficits will soar, and the National Debt will continue on the same trajectory (or worse) than the Obama Years (when the debt doubled). The Tea Party may even be revived as spending once again takes center stage.
Doug:
Oh, boy! I'm going to make you remember this prediction forever. I'm going to repeat your crazy and baseless prediction: Trump will work with Democrats. I'm going to tell your grandchildren about the time that Grandpa predicted that Trump would work with Democrats.
You are very right about Trump not being a ideologue. He doesn't care about any aspect of any policy. Healthcare? He could not care less. War? He could not care less? Economy? Oh, he might care about that, because it effects his number one focus: himself.
Trump will not work with Democrats. Trump will resign. In a bargain so that he won't be prosecuted. Maybe Paul Ryan will come back and be Pence's VP. Otherwise, we will never hear about Paul Ryan again. Do you remember what Paul Ryan did in government? Neither do I.
Deficits already soared, so you can't predict that. But they always do under a Republican-controlled government. That would have been an easy prediction.
The millennials and underrepresented groups will start to make their presence felt in congress. Well, not on the Republican side, because they are still old, white, men. But on the Democratic side, expect to see some really new, fresh ideas. Keep an eye out for the Green New Deal.
I predict that Democrats will lead the way to stop hating on immigrants. No wall will be built. Mexico will not pay for it.
Social Media
David:
Government will step in to start regulating social media companies, to the detriment of free speech. Facebook, specifically, will continue to lose, as it finds that censorship is a sure way to turn away users. FaceBook is now the least trusted tech company in the US. Different, smaller social media sites will spring up catering to specific groups. This is already happening to a certain degree, but will accelerate in 2019.
Doug:
How would you measure the detriment of free speech? Oh, you can't. It is an amorphous phrase meant to try to scare people.
Facebook will lose, but not because of that big, scary government. Facebook will lose out to small communities of Facebook-like groups not owned by any single mega-conglomerate. This may take more than a year, but keep your eye on the Federverse.
2020 Elections
David:
There will be 26 Democratic candidates by the time the first primaries begin. This will quickly wind down to a group of seven, with three or four hanging on briefly. There just isn't enough money to go around. It will settle down to two or three candidates, one being far to the left, and the other(s) being more centrist, and electable. The big story will be moderate Democrats agreeing to put forth a candidate that doesn't represent all of their ideological desires, but projects reasonableness and steadiness in the age of Trump. It will also be someone younger than 55 years old.
Doug:
You are right that elections are too much about money. How could a single person represent all of the "ideological desires" of the Progressive Left? Yes, we will nominate an electable person. That might be someone that you have personally tried to demonize, like Elizabeth Warren. She would make a fine President. But so would many of the 26. Yes, they are largely young, diverse, and hopeful.
Superbowl
David:
Since both my Indianapolis Colts and your Philadelphia Eagles are in the playoffs, maybe we can make a prediction on this year's Super Bowl winner. The Colts are the hottest team in the NFL right now, and have a great shot at getting to the Super Bowl. The Eagles will lose in the first round. I'm predicting the Kansas City Chiefs will win over the Chicago Bears in the Super Bowl by a final score of 24-13.
(Editor's note from David: My original draft for this blog picked the Chiefs to defeat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. After Seattle lost in their first game, I edited this section so that the Chiefs would meet and defeat the Bears, who promptly lost.....to the Eagles. Rather than continuing to edit this section, I'll just admit I know nothing about football, a fact the members of my fantasy football league will confirm. Oh well.)
(Editor's note from Doug: Blame me for the delay in getting this post published. But we better hurry up and post it before something else happens! Too late.)
Doug:
I predict that the Superbowl will be played, and probably a good many people will watch it. Football is getting boring and dangerous. I know you know what "chronic traumatic encephalopathy" is. I certainly wouldn't let my kids play the game these days. Will football players become the gladiators of the 21st century?
You didn't make any predictions about Trump's impending doom? That is weird. There are a lot of bad things that can happen to him. But which one?
And Go Eagles! I had to say that, for the fans.
David:
Speaking of fans, I hope many of the Blank Versus Blank fans are excited to see the blog once again. There is certainly a lot to discuss. I think we can both agree that there will be many interesting things going on in a lot of different topical areas in 2019!
